Gnosis: A platform for prediction markets
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This post will evolve constantly as new information becomes available
and new questions come up. If you have a question that has not been
answered here, go ahead and ask here, on our Slack, or on forum.gnosis.pm. Common questions will be added to this post.
What is Gnosis?
Gnosis.pm is a decentralized
prediction market built on the Ethereum protocol. Gnosis provides an
open platform for anyone to predict the outcome of any event and plans
to drastically simplify the creation of customized prediction market
applications. We view financial and betting applications as ripe for
innovation using our open and decentralized model. Our vision is a
future in which prediction markets are used to optimize an incredible
range of processes and to provide a platform for information sales.
Gnosis is a ConsenSys backed project and was founded by Martin
Koeppelmann and Stefan George, who previously founded and built
Fairlay.com, a centralized Bitcoin prediction market. Together with
ConsenSys we are excellently positioned to execute on our ambitious
vision.
If you'd like to learn more about gnosis and prediction markets, we have some great articles on the Gnosis blog; Martkets for the Future, and Markets for Security are a good starting point.
What is Ethereum?
Ethereum is a decentralized platform that runs smart contracts:
applications that run exactly as programmed without any possibility of
downtime, censorship, fraud or third party interference.
These apps run on a custom built blockchain, an enormously powerful
shared global infrastructure that can move value around and represent
the ownership of property. This enables developers to create markets,
store registries of debts or promises, move funds in accordance with
instructions given long in the past (like a will or a futures contract)
and many other things that have not been invented yet, all without a
middle man or counterparty risk [1].
Ethereum allows censorship resistant execution of smart contracts,
which secures users as well as market makers on our platform and makes
our software globally available.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market allows users to buy and trade binary positions on
the outcome of any arbitrary event. "According to most experts in
economics and finance, speculative markets are exemplary info
institutions. That is, active speculative markets do very well at
inducing people to acquire info, share it via trades, and collect that
info into consensus prices that persuade wider audiences." (Hanson 2013)
As such, prediction markets provide an interesting, and potentially
more accurate, oracle for the outcome of future events as well as for
the reporting of the outcomes of past events.
What is the difference between Gnosis and Augur?
The two main differences are:
- Gnosis is a platform for prediction market applications. The goal is to make it as easy as possible for 3rd party developer to build prediction market applications which are all based on the same liquidity pool.
- As a platform Gnosis is oracle agnostic. We support all kind of oracles, centralized, decentralized or combinations.
Find more details in this blogpost (https://blog.gnosis.pm/the-difference-between-gnosis-and-augur-c08077271a8e#.f7pjwv2bp)
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